Extracts from Nigeria - Failed State 2030 published by the US Air University - 2010
Nigeria in 2030 - Paths to Failure By: Col. Chris J. Kinnan
By 2030 Nigeria’s robust population will have an average age of
less than 20 years and a life expectancy of less than 60 years. As
such, Nigeria will likely have many disaffected and underemployed
young people.
It already has the sixth largest Muslim population
in the world, with a nearly equal balance of Muslims and Christians.
This balance is currently at a tipping point because of the
faster population growth in the Islamic north, which is ruled under
Shar’ia law.
By 2030 Nigeria’s Islamic population will comprise a
majority of the federal electorate; this will precipitate a fundamental
change in Nigeria’s domestic political situation.
In 2030, with a population of more than 225 million people, 350
ethnicities, and multiple languages, Nigeria’s negative social trends
may become ever more destructive.
What impact human and social
factors have on the strength of any nation is largely determined
by its own people.
If the social contract between government and its people remains relatively strong—where the government rules justly, invests in its people, and provides economic and political freedom—national survival is reasonably assured. Such favorable conditions become paths for success.
However, if the government fails to invest in its people and rules through fear and intimidation and corruption becomes corrosively endemic, the bonds of trust between the government and its people could become irreparably weak. These negative trends in crosscutting conditions then become the path to failure.
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